Jeff Nance wrote:This is a good topic for Mr. Nelson to explain. I think the silvers are there, but they are not in the typical areas we normally fish. I thought an interesting topic was the commercial fleet's numbers on the diversion rate this year. Some examples would be the king fishery this year in area 9, Possession just was not fishing as well as the Pilot Pt area, sockeye fishing in the San Juan's was not there, but the Canadian side was doing good. When I was up in Nootka the best fishing was in a totally new area then where it was in previous years. I guess the point is that fish seem to be taking slightly different routes this year. Mr. Nelson I would love to hear your thoughts on this, and please no big "Fish Biologist"
words.
No big words but rather a four letter one:
BLOB The CPC or Climate Prediction Center's models are calling for an El Nino or warm water event to develop this winter and we've seen a warm water "Blob" off the Canadian coast manifest itself in a salmonid diversion rate in the high 90% percentile this season.
What is meant by a "diverson rate"?
Great question! Salmonids migrate down the coast, feeding along the way until the odor of their natal stream triggers the "home water" response, causing them to take a hard left and head up their crick!
However, this season, there has been a pool of warmer water out in the ocean, resulting in something of a dead zone with regard to primary or plankton productivity. Simply stated, no plankton, no krill, no krill no baitfish, no baitfish.... you got it..no salmon!
So, if you're swimming down the coast and there is nothing to eat and it's a bit warm in the ocean, why not make a detour down Johnstone Strait where it's nice, cool and has tasty herring?
So, the vast majority of the sockeye, chinook and possibly coho "diverted" between Vancouver Island and mainland British Columbia, making them more available to the Canadian fleet and all but unavailable to us Washington anglers which, frankly,.. sucks!
This warm water scenerio is really all I can point to with any certainty to the strange season we're seeing and it would also explain why the coho seem a bit smaller this year