CR Springer #s

[Smalma]

Hearing that 2013 upper Columbia river springer forecast is out at 141,000. That is roughly 2/3of last years actually return. Does not include the lower river tirb numbers (Willy for example).

Going to be a tougher year and my best guess is to look for reduced opportunity. Maybe something like 3 or 4 days/week beginning in March and no fishing above the I-5 bridge at Portland.

With this forecast the planning for the 2013 seasons is officall off and running; NOF will be here before we know it.

BTW -
Have not heard the Trib forescast yet.

Curt

[Nelly]

Thanks for posting that Curt!
Let's hope next year's springer forecast is as far under-forecasted as last year's was over-forecasted!

Here's the digits!

Columbia River Mouth Fish Returns Actual and Forecast

2012 Forecast: 314,200

2012 Upriver Total Return 203,100

2013 Forecast 141,400

Let's keep our fingers crossed and hope for an in-season run update that extends the season!

[Smalma]

For better or worst we will be stuck with the pre-season forecast (after buffering by 30%?) for management decisions until well into the spring. Experience has shown that any fishing through March and most of April will be driven by ESA impacts based on that buffered forecasted number. The pre-season number is buffered for the lower river fishery to help assure that the managers meet their up river obligations.

If I recall correctly the potential in-season updates are based on Bonneville counts in May. Of course by then the river flows are typically up quite a bit.

The last piece of info to fall will be the trib. forecasts (especially the Willy forecast) which if adequate could help "stretch" the lower catch some (the fishery is limited by upper river stock impacts) meaning that if harvestable numbers of lower stocks exist they will be an addition to the total river catch.

Final management decisions are down the road but the forecasts the general format is pretty predictable.

Curt