Lake Washington Sockeye Season Possibility??!??

[Nelly]

Well, it is that time of year again!
The annual sockeye return into and through the Lake Washington system, the Cedar River and on into Lake Sammish. These "Lock Counts" provides insights into the run size estimations for sockeye entering the WA basin.

This years' return to the Chittenden Locks was estimated to be 97,000 sockeye in the preseason planning for this year. As you will see, the return to this point is currently at 54,000.
While it is premature to be anticipating a fishery, it's difficult not to get fired up over these numbers!
At this point in time, it is unknown just if the return is early or if it is a strong return.

On Sunday June 23 an estimated 12,936 sockeye streamed through the locks, boosting the season total to an amazing 54,064 in only twelve days of counting. In 2006, the last time a fishery occurred in Lake Washington, on this date, only 20,840 sockeye had been counted.

Stay tuned gang... this could get very interesting!!!

[kurtmiller]

12,000+ daily count this early is amazing... 350,000 here we come. Yeehaw!

[LndShrk]

Well I want it to be... Really I do...

Here is how we compare on totals year over year. Showing fishing years in green and non in grey. Red being current numbers.



Now the hard part predict based on patterns. This one is tough.
The two closest daily patterns are 2001 and 2004 Non fish and fish respectively. 2001 looked soo good then just died off. However 2004 did not die off. Just too early to tell yet.


I did see this guy in there this morning.. Nookie in A-9 and 10

[Nelly]

Thanks for posting that 'shark!
Very interesting graphs and good information there.
As of today, over 70,000 sockeye have passed through the locks.
Counts are still over 5,000 fish per day.
Stay tuned... This is getting interesting!

[LndShrk]

Thanks for posting that 'shark!
Very interesting graphs and good information there.
As of today, over 70,000 sockeye have passed through the locks.
Counts are still over 5,000 fish per day.
Stay tuned... This is getting interesting!

Here is the fun number that I really like.
Last year the prediction was around 45K return. We got about145K back. Using that ratio with the 96k prediction this year the magic number is 356K.

Do you happen to know where to get past year prediction numbers? I would like to go back to 2000 if possible.

[Nelly]

You've got me there!
I will ask the "Father" of the new Lake Washington sockeye hatchery Frank Urabeck if he has actual vs predicted numbers going back to 2000.
Again...stay tuned!

[LndShrk]

I added some trends to track to..
We need some big numbers soon.. I hope this weather change kicks them in the rear.
Totals...



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