The 2011 Salmon Forecasts!!! 6
I know, I've got it bad… I await the salmon forecast numbers like a kid waiting for Christmas morning.
Hello, my name is Tom and I am a "salmon sicko".
After watching the numbers for a number of years (never mind how many…) I've found that you can "call some shots" by digging into the forecast numbers.
The PFMC (Pacific Fisheries Management Council) chinook and coho abundance estimates take some pouring through to find the real "meat" but don't worry, I've done all the leg work for you right here!
2011 Preseason adult Chinook salmon stock forecasts (in thousands of fish)
Stock 2009 2010 2011
Willapa fall 34.8 31.1 36.8
Hoh fall 2.6 3.3 2.9
Nooksack/Sam 23.0 30.3 37.5
Skagit summer 23.4 13.0 15.9
Stillaguamish 1.0 1.4 1.9
Snohomish Wild 8.4 9.9 7.4
Snohomish Hatch 4.9 5.6 5.1
Tulalip Bay 4.0 3.4 3.5
S Puget Wild 17.2 12.7 8.9
S. Puget Hatch 93.0 97.4 118.6
Hood Canal Wild 2.5 2.4 2.1
Hood Canal Hatch 40.1 42.6 38.3
Key Stock totals 255,600 253,100 278,900!!!
From the above numbers, We can take a guess that chinook seasons may be similar to last year but a bonus 25 thousand chinook can't hurt!!!
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The Silver Story!
2010 Preseason adult coho salmon stock forecasts (in thousands of fish)
Stock 2009 2010 2011
Straits Wild 20.5 8.5 12.3
Straits Hatch 7.0 7.8 12.7
Nook/Sam W 7.0 9.6 29.5
Nook/Sam H 25.5 36.0 45.7
Skagit Wild 33.4 95.9 138.1
Skagit Hatch 11.7 9.5 16.2
Stilly Wild 13.4 25.9 66.5
Stilly hatch 0.0 5.4 0.6
Snohomish W 67.0 99.4 180.0
Snohomish H 53.6 24.5 54.9
S Sound W 53.6 25.3 98.9
S Sound H 188.8 186.4 173.3
Hood Wild 48.6 33.2 77.5
Hood Hatch 52.0 51.2 72.1
Key stocks Total 338,600 320,800 966,000!!!
The obvious bright spots in the coho numbers are, well take your pick!!! We're looking at a very serious silver season here!
About the "humpy hordes" ??? Six million Puget Sound pinks are on the way!
Keep in mind that these numbers are but the "raw material" that the co-managers will use to craft our local seasons and only by attending the North of Falcon meetings can you have an impact on the process.
We will keep you posted here but I sincerely look forward to meeting some of you….at the meetings!!!
Nice work. I've been trying to wade through this for a week. Thanks for the breakdown.
Sounds like the local rivers are going to stuffed with fish come fall. Good thing I sold my sled &%$#*. I guess chasing them around the bay won't be too bad. Looks like we will be washing fish blood off the decks either way. Sharkey
Hey Jeff, In my 'umble opinion it's a combination of increased coastal upwelling due to less El Nino's and more La Ninas (Better ocean conditions) and better numbers of wild spawners and hatchery releases. If you remember back a few years, we had a series of nasty floods in '07 & '08 (no significant floods in the winter of '09/'10). Floods move large amounts of sediment which reduces spawning effectiveness and can also significantly disrupt hatchery operations. There will be more salmon run info coming this way during the NOF process but if you're holding out hope for a Lake Washington Sockeye season, you can make other plans now. The LK WA sockeye forecast is about 10% of what we need for a fishery. That new sockeye hatchery can't come fast enough!
Excited about the coho numbers!! It's going to be a great year to be out on the sound.
Man I miss the Skagit in the fall. That coho number just hit me where it counts. Nice to see the fish coming back though : )
Wow Nelly! The skagit and snoho are going blow up this year! Lets hope they are right!