2011: The Good Ol’ Days Return? 5

Around these parts, the modern benchmark for a great fishing year was 2001.

In that year, Columbia river springers hit a 25 year high,  Puget sound chinook & coho crowded area streams, pink salmon were "every cast" thick, nearly 300,000 sockeye streamed into Lake Washington and winter steelhead fishing was smokin'. 

Now, ten years later, amid WDFW budget doom & gloom we're getting a peek at the promise of spring in the dead of winter and seeing early signs of a great 2011 salmon season!
The first bone fide forecasts of the 2011 season have just been announced. The Columbia River Technical Advisory Committee (TAC)  produce these numbers and it's good news!  The spring chinook forecast is the sixth largest since 1979 and well above the long-term average! Between the early returning Willamette stock and the upper Columbia component we are looking at over 300,000 springers!

According to NOAA's Northwest Fisheries Science Center, poor ocean conditions during 2003–2006 began to improve during 2007 and greatly improved during 2008.  Also in 2008, NOAA observed the coldest winter sea surface temperatures of the past 12 years (and probably since the 1970s) which resulted in increased coastal upwelling. Upwelling is the process by which cold, nutrient-rich water from the ocean floor is brought to the surface. It's nature's way of "opening up the refrigerator" and bringing the goodies to the coastal "stove".  In other words, when you warm these deep waters and allow the sun's rays to drive photosynthesis, an oceanic food bloom awaits young salmonids, speeding their growth and enhancing survival rates.

The above paragraph was a fancy way of telling you that we can expect a very good Puget Sound chinook season and a much improved coho season from last year… not that it would take much to be an improvement over 2010 Puget Sound coho bust.

One cannot discuss 2011 without recognizing that it's an odd year and that means our odd little salmon, the humpy is on it's way. If you remember 2009's forecast of 7 million Puget Sound pinks then you have a good idea of what 2011 might have in store for us. Recall that the winter of 2009/2010 came and went without a flood and all of those pink salmon eggs stayed in the gravel undisturbed. Don't be the least bit surprised if the "Humpy Horde" forecast of 2011 is in the low to mid teens… Millions that is. Stock up on the pink mini hoochies while you can!

The actual Pacific Fishery Management Council forecasts are still a few months out  but shortly after the numbers are announced, you will hear us on ESPN 710 Seattle's The Outdoor Line uttering the words "North of Falcon".  North of Falcon (NOF) is the salmon season setting process that involves user group input. This is the only opportunity for local anglers to get involved in the process and have a "say" in crafting salmon seasons. There is a wisecrack describing the NOF process that is a favorite of mine. It's said that the truest words are said in jest but this line is no joke: "If you're not at the table… You're ON the table".  Roughly translated: If you don't show up at North of Falcon, you can be sure that commercial fishing interests will be only too happy to carve up your piece of the "salmon pie" and you'll be lucky to find the crumbs that are left over.

2011 will not be a "crummy" season! Get ready, get involved and get out there. Here at the Outdoor Line, we'll be doing our level best to keep you headed in the direction of the latest "Hotspot" Oh, and we'll have a big surprise for you… stay tuned!