Local Salmon Forecast “By the Numbers”!!! Leave a reply
As mentioned in a previous blog post, I await the salmon forecast numbers like a kid waiting for Christmas morning.
Hello, my name is Tom and I am a "salmon sicko".
After watching the numbers for a number of years (never mind how many…) I've found that you can "call some shots" by digging into the forecast numbers.
The PFMC (Pacific Fisheries Management Council) chinook and coho abundance estimates take some pouring through to find the real "meat" but don't worry, I've done all the leg work for you right here.
2010 Preseason adult Chinook salmon stock forecasts in thousands of fish
Stock 2009 2010
Willapa fall 34.8 31.1
Hoh fall 2.6 3.3
Nooksack/Sam 23.0 30.3
Skagit summer 23.4 13.0
Stillaguamish 1.7 1.4
Snohomish Wild 8.4 9.9
Snohomish Hatch 4.9 5.6
Tulalip Bay 4.0 3.4
S Puget Wild 17.2 12.7
S. Puget Hatch 93.0 97.4
Hood Canal Wild 2.5 2.4
Hood Canal Hatch 40.1 42.6
Key Stock totals 255,600 253,100
From the above numbers, We can take a guess that chinook seasons will be similar to last year with the following exceptions:
The Skagit summer chinook season will be lost for the 2010 season. San Juan chinook should be as good or better than 2009. Snohomish chinook will be up 17% hopefully resulting in similar Skykomish seasons to last year. Just bring a five-gallon bucket of water to the crick with you… It's might be a dry summer with this poor excuse of a snow pack we've got.
The Silver Story!
2010 Preseason adult coho salmon stock forecasts in thousands of fish.
Stock 2009 2010
Straits Wild 20.5 8.5
Straits Hatch 7.0 7.8
Nook/Sam W 7.0 9.6
Nook/Sam H 25.5 36.0
Skagit Wild 33.4 95.9
Skagit Hatch 11.7 9.5
Stilly Wild 13.4 25.9
Stilly hatch 0.0 5.4
Snohomish W 67.0 99.4
Snohomish H 53.6 24.5
S Sound W 53.6 25.3
S Sound H 188.8 186.4
Hood Wild 48.6 33.2
Hood Hatch 52.0 51.2
Puget Sound Total 338.6 320.8
The obvious bright spots in the coho numbers are the Skagit and Snohomish wild fish. Last year the pinks played "defense" for the coho, as it was difficult to get anything past the "humpy hordes"
This season the local coho will not have such luck and we will hopefully have the opportunity to take advantage of a solid if not stellar coho season.
Keep in mind that these numbers are but the "raw material" that the co-managers will use to craft our local seasons and only by attending the North of Falcon meetings can you have an impact on the process.
We will keep you posted here but I sincerely look forward to meeting some of you….at the meetings!!!