Washington salmon forecasts come to light and nearly 7.8-million Puget Sound pinks are predicted to return, which is more than 3.9 million compared to the 2023 forecast Leave a reply
Contributed by Mark Yuasa, WDFW
Salmon anglers will likely be blushing with delight after WDFW fishery managers unveiled the 2025-2026 salmon forecasts at a public meeting on Friday, Feb. 28 in Olympia, and it appears a really strong number of Puget Sound pink salmon will arrive in late summer.
The Feb. 28 “kickoff” meeting is part of the month-long season-setting process known as North of Falcon (NOF), a term referring to waters north of Oregon’s Cape Falcon, which marks the southern border of management of Washington’s salmon stocks. It includes Puget Sound, Strait of Juan de Fuca, Columbia River, and coastal Washington salmon stocks.
While the salmon forecasts just came to light, it is still a long path to knowing exactly how those will correlate into specific fishing seasons in freshwater and marine areas.
State fishery managers use a suite of scientific data, including watershed sampling and monitoring, ocean indicators, and previous year returns, to estimate the number of salmon returning and decipher how many fish are available to catch.
The next steps in the salmon season setting process are determining if there’s a harvestable surplus; propose fisheries and predict catches; model fisheries to shape which stocks are of conservation concern and constraining fisheries; negotiate with tribal co-managers and other states for equitable catch sharing plans and impacts on weak salmon stocks; and then finalize all fisheries in Washington, Oregon, and California.
A rather robust pink forecast of 7,756,232– compared to 3,950,917 in 2023, 2,925,681 in 2021 and 608,388 in 2019 – is predicted this summer for Puget Sound, Hood Canal, and Strait of Juan de Fuca. If the 2025 pink forecast comes to fruition, it would be the third largest return on record. The 2025 pink forecast is up 70% over the recent 10-year cycle average.
The two standout freshwater watersheds is the Green and Nisqually rivers. On the Green River, WDFW is forecasting a whopping 1,835,366 are expected to return in 2025, well above 821,681 in 2023, 397,732 in 2021, and 141,130 in 2019. On the Nisqually, the forecast is 1,503,704, and much higher than 454,281 in 2023, 184,636 in 2021, and 25,380 in 2019.
The Hood Canal area is also expected to wax well above expectations with a forecast of 2,414,207 pinks compared to 492,858 in 2023, 174,244 in 2021, and 70,675 in 2019.
While relatively small (3 to 5 pounds), pinks are the fastest growing Pacific salmon species and return in bulk during odd-numbered years after spending two years in the ocean before migrating to natal rivers.
Pinks mainly spawn in lower river stretches, which is why they’re able to be less impacted by urban development, and don’t spend an extended time in the harsh freshwater environment.
Pinks provide a bonus fishing opportunity in the Strait of Juan de Fuca and Puget Sound as well as some local rivers. Fishing in Puget Sound was very good at times in 2021 and 2019 during August and September.
The pink salmon fishery draws a huge buzz because they’re relatively easy to catch from shore and boat. Pinks tend to stay close to the shoreline to avoid strong currents and is the main reason why bank anglers can find them just a short cast away.
A breakdown by river shows a pink forecast in Nooksack of 97,370 (24,997 in 2023, 24,000 in 2021 and 24,476 in 2019); Skagit, 468,023 (552,193, 927,300 and 114,769); Stillaguamish, 117,322 (199,564, 51,607 and 47,929); Snohomish, 315,942 (642,279, 555,929 and 128,362); Puyallup, 709,292 (397,255, 358,368 and 47,905); South Puget Sound, 503 (382, 142 and 143); and Strait of Juan de Fuca, 294,503 (365,427, 35,723 and 7,629).
Puget Sound rivers saw strong pink runs from 2001 to 2009 and then had a downturn in in 2011, 2013, 2015, 2017 before bouncing back to good figures in 2019.
Other salmon forecasts
The 2025 Puget Sound summer/fall wild Chinook forecast is 24,853 compared to 28,566 in 2024. The hatchery Chinook forecast is 246,524 compared to 194,338 in 2024. The Stillaguamish wild Chinook forecast is 632 compared to 503 in 2024. The wild Chinook stocks of concern in 2025 are the Stillaguamish, Snohomish, Skagit and Nooksack rivers.
The Puget Sound Chinook forecasts and abundance trends for hatchery fish is up 53% and wild fish is down 37% compared to the recent 10-year average adult return. The hatchery fish is up 10% and the wild fish is down 2% compared to the 2024 forecast. The total Puget Sound Chinook is up 32% from the 10-year average run size and up 9% from the 2024 forecast.
The 2025 Puget Sound coho forecast is 727,058 (462,180 are hatchery and 264,878 are wild). The 2025 Hood Canal wild coho forecast is 16,710 and down compared to 36,442 in 2024 putting the stock in critical status and requiring a much lower level of impact than was allowed in 2024 (20% Exploitation Rate ceiling in 2025 vs. 45% Exploitation Rate in 2024).
The Puget Sound coho forecasts and abundance trends for hatchery fish is up 22% and wild fish is up 1% compared to the recent 10-year average adult return. The hatchery fish is up 10% and the wild fish is down 12% compared to the 2024 forecast. The total Puget Sound Chinook is up 13% from the 10-year average run size and up 1% from the 2024 forecast.
On the coast, the 2025 wild Chinook forecast is 32,823 and the hatchery Chinook forecast is 42,440.
The 2025 Willapa Bay Chinook forecast is 35,757 (wild is 2,338 with a 4,353 escapement goal and hatchery is 33,419 with a 9,925 escapement goal).
On the northern coast, all the Hoh River Chinook and coho stocks are predicted to meet wild fish spawning escapement goals. The Quillayute River Chinook stocks are predicted to meet wild guideline goals.
The coastal Chinook forecasts and abundance trends for hatchery fish is up 11% and wild fish is down 9% compared to the recent 10-year average adult return. The hatchery fish is up 16% and the wild fish is down 11% compared to the 2024 forecast. The total Puget Sound Chinook is up 1% from the 10-year average run size and up 3% from the 2024 forecast.
The total 2025 coastal coho forecast of 381,900 is slightly above the 385,928 in 2024. The wild coho forecast of 136,961 is down from 157,957 in 2024, but the hatchery forecast of 244,939 is up from 227,971 in 2024. The Queets River total coho forecast is 18,766 in 2025 and under the 31,720 in 2024. The Quillayute River summer coho forecast is 3,296 up from 2,66 in 2024.
The coastal coho forecasts and abundance trends for hatchery fish is up 23% and wild fish is down 9% compared to the recent 10-year average adult return. The hatchery fish is up 8% and the wild fish is down 13% compared to the 2024 forecast. The total Puget Sound Chinook is up 9% from the 10-year average run size and down 0.5% from the 2024 forecast.
The 2025 Baker Lake sockeye forecast is 60,214 and is predicted to be another record high forecast up from 56,750 in 2024 and 31,296 (actual return was a record high of more than 65,000) in 2023.
The Lake Washington sockeye forecast remains poor with 35,356 forecasted to return in 2025, but up from 19,574 in 2024 23,188 were counted through Sept. 9, 2024), 21,851 in 2023, 10,156 in 2022, and 24,807 in 2021.
The 2025 Lake Washington sockeye forecast is down 17% and the Baker Lake is up 57% over the recent 10-year average.
The 2025 Puget Sound/Hood Canal fall wild chum forecast of 755,305 is a relatively large forecast and up from 481,853 in 2024, and the combined wild and hatchery forecast calls for more than 1.27 million chum (818,793 in 2024).
A breakdown of the South Sound fall chum forecast is 409,160 wild and 45,721 hatchery (268,855 and 41,253 respectively in 2024). The Nisqually winter chum are forecast (35,000 is the prediction) to be above the spawning escapement goal for the first time in the past seven years.
On the coast, the 2025 fall chum forecast is 94,464 for Willapa Bay and 151,913 for Grays Harbor.
The Puget Sound hatchery origin fall chum forecast is down 5% and the wild origin forecast is up 35% over the recent 10-year average. The coastal hatchery origin fall chum forecast is up 141% and the wild origin forecast is up 36% over the recent 10-year average.
In southern British Columbia, the 2025 Fraser River sockeye forecast is 2,947,000. The pink forecast is expected to be a record-high return with a strong return in 2023 and a record high outmigration estimate in 2024. The Thompson River coho forecast hasn’t been released but should be out soon.
Columbia River spring and fall Chinook and coho
The Columbia River fall Chinook forecast of 718,000 in 2025 is up compared to the forecast of 547,800 and an actual return of 669,505 in 2024. The preliminary Columbia River coho forecast of 303,800 in 2025 is lower than the forecast of 736,982 in 2024.
The Columbia River spring Chinook seasons were set on Feb. 19, and you can find the current permanent regulations by going to the WDFW The Salmon Fishing Current blog.
Spring Chinook primarily enter freshwater during February through June to spawn in Columbia River tributaries during August through October. Returning adults are comprised of lower river (originating from tributaries downstream of Bonneville Dam) and upriver (originating from tributaries upstream of Bonneville Dam) stocks.
Most wild spring Chinook entering the Columbia River are listed under the federal Endangered Species Act (ESA) and return to the Snake River and Upper Columbia River tributaries.
The total spring Chinook forecast for 2025 is 217,500 up from the 2024 preseason of 205,600 and the actual return of 189,559.
In 2025, preseason forecasting anticipates a return of 122,500 adult upriver-origin spring Chinook and is 88% of the average returned observed from 2015 to 2024. Approximately 116,332 adult aged upriver-origin spring Chinook returned to the Columbia River in 2024, which was less than the preseason forecast of 121,000.
In the Kalama spring Chinook forecast to the tributary mouth in 2025 is 2,900 (1,840 was forecast with an actual return of 2,310 in 2024). The Cowlitz is 13,310 (4,580 and 8,822). The Lewis is 3,060 (3,270 and 2,553).
The 2025 Cowlitz spring Chinook forecast to the tributary mouth is greater than the recent five-year and 10-year average return of 5,300 and 9,800, respectively. The 2025 Kalama spring Chinook forecast to the tributary mouth is similar to the recent five-year and 10 year average return of 2,200 and 2,500, respectively. The 2025 Lewis spring Chinook forecast to the tributary mouth is similar to the recent five-year average return of 3,700 and greater than the 10-year average return of 2,600.
On the Oregon side, the 2025 Willamette River spring Chinook run of 51,200 is up from a forecast of 48,800 and an actual return of 37,737 in 2024. The Willamette hatchery-origin spring Chinook forecast is 36,600 (39,300 and 28,099 in 2024).
The spring Chinook forecasts to tributaries above Bonneville Dam also appear on paper to be somewhat improved. The Wind forecast is 4,900 (4,200 forecast and actual return of 4,604 in 2024). Drano Lake (aka Little White Salmon) forecast is 7,600 (5,300 and 7,863). The Klickitat forecast is 1,200 (1,300 and 491).
According to WDFW number crunchers, the 2025 Wind spring Chinook forecast is greater than the recent five-year and 10-year average return of 4,100 and 4,000, respectively. The Drano Lake spring Chinook forecast is similar to recent five-year average return of 7,400 and less than the recent 10-year average return of 8,100. The 2025 Klickitat spring Chinook forecast is similar to recent five-year average return of 1,300 and less than the recent 10-year average return of 1,500.
High anticipation for Columbia River sockeye
The hype around the Upper Columbia sockeye fishery in North Central Washington may hold on to its reputation again during the summer of 2025 as a promising forecast of 350,200 is expected to jam the river.
The 2024 forecast of 401,700 was waxed by the actual record return of 761,682, which was 92,000 more than the previous record, and is the largest run since Bonneville Dam was erected in 1938. It also comes off the heels in 2022 when the unexpected actual sockeye return to Upper Columbia topped 664,935 (198,700 was the preseason forecast) and was the previous record return.
The key driver for the upper-river fisheries is an Okanogan forecast of 248,000 in 2025 (288,700 was forecast and the actual return of 572,552 in 2024; 187,400 and 179,655 in 2023; and 175,700 and 513,317 in 2022).
The 2025 Columbia River sockeye forecast for Lake Wenatchee is up 1% and Okanogan River is down 2% over the recent 10-year average.
On Lower Columbia at Bonneville Dam, a new record was set in the summer of 2024 with more than 755,000 sockeye counted, and the likely contributor was the Upper Columbia sockeye escapement.
Many of the sockeye linger in the Brewster Pool, a popular early-summer deep-water salmon fishing location on Upper Columbia. Sockeye are also caught during the summer months from the Rocky Reach Dam up to Wells Dam.
Sockeye migrate from its confluence just below Chief Joseph Dam, north into its headwater lakes in British Columbia that is known for a notoriously warm water “thermal barrier” and changing river flow patterns in the summer.
In 2024, 2023 and 2022, colder water throughout the mid- and upper-Columbia had sockeye darting straight up into the Brewster Pool generating good fishing in early summer and into August.
Sockeye are learning to adapt their upstream migration timing in recent years therefore most fish returns are peaking sooner than later in the summer.
Over the past few decades, the run would peak by early July, but it’s shifted to late June and has resulted in higher sockeye survival in recent years.
On the heels of the 2024 record breaking Lake Wenatchee sockeye return of 190,117 (97,000 was the forecast in 2024), the 2025 forecast of 94,000 could provide another back-to-back record return. This is also way up from a 44,300 forecast in 2023 which resulted in an actual previous record return of 146,875.
The 2025 forecast is well above the spawning escapement objective of 23,000 at Tumwater Dam, and if that happens look for another excellent late-summer sport fishery in the lake.
The fisheries for summer Chinook along the Upper Columbia River from Wenatchee to Chelan Falls and up to Brewster was somewhat disappointing in 2024 and could become a possibility again in 2025.
The 2025 Upper Columbia summer Chinook return is 38,000 down from a forecast of 52,600 and actual return of 42,511 in 2024; 85,400 and 54,722 in 2023; and 56,300 and 78,444 in 2022.
For information and materials from the Feb. 28 WDFW statewide salmon forecast meeting, refer to https://wdfw.wa.gov/events/initial-salmon-forecasts-released-20250228.
Next up on the salmon season planning docket
The next step in the salmon season setting process will occur when the Pacific Fishery Management Council (PFMC) meets from March 6-11 in Vancouver, WA. WDFW will develop three proposed ocean salmon season and quota options for waters three to 200 miles off the Washington coast.
The first NOF hybrid public meeting is March 19, 9 a.m., at the Office Building 2 Auditorium, 1115 Washington St. S.E. in Olympia, followed by a second NOF hybrid public meeting on March 25, 9 a.m., at the Lynnwood Embassy Suites.
At the two NOF meetings, the discussion includes management objectives and preliminary fishery proposals for sport and commercial fisheries in Puget Sound and coastal Washington, with limited discussion of the Columbia River and ocean fisheries.
All fishing seasons will be finalized at the PFMC meetings on April 10-15 in San Jose, CA. During the final days of negotiations, state fish managers plan to hold briefings each day, which will be available via virtual meetings at the meetings in San Jose.
There are several other meetings across the state where the public can participate. For a complete list of meetings, go to WDFW North of Falcon webpage.
Revised winter Chinook fisheries announced
The start date for winter Chinook fisheries in Marine Area 10 (Seattle-Bremerton Area), Marine Area 11 (Tacoma-Vashon Island), and Marine Area 5 (Sekiu and Pillar Point) has been changed to extend opportunity later into the season.
Winter Chinook fishing in Marine Areas 10 and 11 opens four days a week – Wednesdays through Saturdays only – starting April 2 and Marine Area 5 opens daily starting April 14.
“Starting the season in Marine Areas 10 and 11 on a Wednesday through Saturday schedule gives us the best chance to fish the entire month,” said Lyle Jennings, the WDFW Puget Sound recreational fisheries manager. “Marine Area 5 is opening late due to limited moorage space and all the docks aren’t expected to be installed at the beginning of April. We consulted with the Puget Sound Sport Fishing Advisory Group and recreational anglers, who indicated a priority to preserve fishing opportunity as long as possible into the winter season.”
The opening dates are a change from the 2024-2025 Washington Sport Fishing Rules pamphlet, which had the winter season in Marine Areas 10 and 11 open daily from March 16 through April 30, and Marine Area 5 open from April 1 to 30.
In Marine Areas 10 and 11, winter salmon fishing is open Wednesdays through Saturdays only from April 2 to 30, except open daily at year-round piers. In Marine Area 10, the April winter Chinook guidelines are 4,787 total encounters, 735 total unmarked encounters, and 4,055 total sublegal (Chinook under the 22-inch minimum size limit) encounters. In Marine Area 11, the April winter Chinook fishery guideline is 1,196 total encounters, 209 total unmarked encounters, and 840 total sublegal encounters.
In Marine Areas 10 and 11, the daily limit is two salmon including no more than one hatchery-marked Chinook. The Chinook minimum size is 22 inches. All other salmon species have no minimum size limit. Anglers must release chum and wild Chinook. The Agate Pass Area in Marine Area 10 remains open daily through March 31 for catch-and-release fly fishing only, and closed beginning April 1. Commencement Bay in Marine Area 11 east of a line from Cliff House Restaurant to Sperry Ocean Dock line is closed to salmon fishing.
In Marine Area 5, winter Chinook fishing is open daily from April 14 to 30. The daily limit is one hatchery-marked Chinook. The Chinook minimum size is 22 inches. Anglers must release all salmon other than hatchery-marked Chinook. The April total sublegal Chinook encounters are 2,168.
WDFW will evaluate catch rates from fishery data collected each week via test fishing and creel sampling throughout the season and assess whether the fishery should be opened additional days per week.
(Mark Yuasa is a Washington Department of Fish and Wildlife Communications Manager. He also was the outdoor reporter at The Seattle Times for 28 years.)