2011 Columbia River Fall Chinook Preseason Forecasts!! 2

This is just a preseason forecast but if they are as accurate as they were last year then we are in for another great year of chinook salmon fishing in the ocean and on the Columbia.  I can't wait to get this season started. 

COLUMBIA RIVER FALL CHINOOK
2011 PRESEASON FORECASTS

Stock Group                            2011 February Forecasts    2010 Actual Returns    2010 February Forecasts
Lower River Hatchery – LRH                     133,500                               103,000                         90,600
Lower River Wild – LRW                             12,500                                10,900                           9,700
Bonneville Pool Hatchery – BPH                 116,400                              130,800                       169,000
Upriver Bright – URB                                398,200                              324,900                       310,800
Bonneville Upriver Bright – BUB                  37,600                                29,400                         30,300
Pool Upriver Bright – PUB                           62,400                                49,600                         42,300
Columbia River Total                           760,600                             648,600                      652,700
 

2011 Forecast Highlights
 LRH – Best return since 2003 and greater than the 10-year average (92,500).    
 LRW – Improved over last four years, but slightly below 10-year average (15,400).
 BPH – Slightly less than 2010 actual return but greater than the 10-year average (105,900). 
 URB – 2nd largest return since record keeping began in 1964 (The largest return was 420,700 in 1987).  Over 60% of the 2011 return is expected to be age-4 fish.       
 BUB – Similar to the 10-year average of 47,500.
 PUB – 3rd largest return on record (1986).  Greater than 10-year average (43,800). 
 Total forecast of 760,600 Columbia River fall Chinook is the 5th largest since at least 1948 and greater than the 10-year average of 565,800.

In other news, the Governor's idea of killing the Fish and Wildlife Commission appears to be dead but the compromise is only slightly better.  Substitute Senate Bill 5669 that was passed out of Senator Ranker's Senate Natural Resources Committee will keep the commission a commission but will do a few other things that I don't like. Things like changeing the name of WDF&W to "Department of Fish, Wildlife and Recreation. 

This  bill also gives the Governor the ability to appoint a Department Secretary from a list of 5 names jointly submitted by both Parks and F&W Commissions.  This would once again give the Governor more power with the ability to appoint and then dictate policy to whoever sings the Governor's tune.  Would someone from the Parks Commission really be good for anglers and hunters in this state?  Maybe, but more likely the answer would be no.  Would a possible Secretary of this new department be taking away from the users that pay to play (license fees etc.) and appropriate it somewhere else? 

Lastly, this bill creates a transition team for this entire process to take place.  This thing is supposed to save the state money and now we are talking about a transition team and the costs involved there.  The Governor's proposal would supposedly have saved $2.5 million and now Senator Ranker says he can save $10 million by doing this.  Senator Ranker, where is the savings?  To my knowledge he has not shown where he is getting that savings but he sure is talking about it.  I fear that this is more fuzzy math from a politician.  We need to remind Senator Ranker that he is up for re-election and that his dreams of being in DC some day will not come to fruition if he goes through with this.  Believe me, I am all for shrinking government and eliminating waste but in my opinion, the Department of Fish and Wildlife has to stand on it's own in this state. 

Finally, we had Rep. Hans Dunshee on the show last weekend and he mentioned making sure that we call or email our senators and representatives and tell them to make sure they give plenty of funding to the capital budget so that we can properly fund hatcheries and habitat.